We're in the middle of spring training, and here are my preseason picks and thoughts on how baseball will shake up:
AL East-
It will be another year with a classic BoSox-Yanks rivalry. These two teams will be going at it all season, and it'll come down to the wire. Boston possibly has one of the best and most experienced pitching crew in the land. The commanding Schilling, venerable Wells, and up and rising Clement are a great 1-2-3, followed by Arroyo and Wade Miller who are entering their prime and looking for career years. In the bullpen, veterans Foulke, Embree, and Timlin are dependable while hopefully Wakefield and Halama will rebound from sub par years in mid-long relief roles. They exhibit a terrific, experienced outfield in Damon, Nixon, and Ramirez, and their infield can get hits while pulling off a ton of double plays. In New York, The Yankees have some of the best hitters in baseball as always. Their starting lineup reads as an all-star team with Porsada, Giambi, Womack, A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Sheffield, Tino Martinez, and Bernie Williams. Their pitching, like Boston, is aging but Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Flash Gordon and the like are coming off great years. It's a tough call, but I see the Red Sox taking the division this year, with New York getting the AL wildcard. Despite New York having the edge in offense, their starting rotation isn't quite as deep, and that I think that burden will take its toll on some of the injury-plagued relievers by the end of the year. The other three teams in the division don't have the pitching to compete with these two teams' lineups, despite each having some notable hitters themselves.
NL East-
Due to some nice off-season additions, I'm going to have to go with the Mets here. They have possibly the best outfield in Floyd, Cameron, and Beltran, while starters like Kris Benson, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, and Victor Zambrano are four solid guys. I think Atlanta is aging too much and going to miss the postseason this year. Smoltz may not do so well as a starter anymore, which leaves a questionable Mike Hampton to follow ace acquisition Tim Hudson from the A's. I think their hitters are passing their prime as well, with grandpa Franco and Jordan, and other stars getting up there in age like Chipper Jones and Raul Mondesi. This team will need to rebuild and replace their big name guys. Speaking of big names, the newly relocated Washington Nationals have some high-priced names, but I don't see them any higher than the middle of the division. Their roster seems to be full of players who had a fluke season or two (Esteban Loaiza, Antonio Osuna, Christian Guzman, etc.), but have never really proved themselves at the major league level consistently. I think the Marlins' new mix of players will lead to a negative team chemistry, and don't see Florida getting much above .500 this season. The Phillies will be pitiful and bring in the rear.
AL Central-
I know I'm biased, but I'm picking the White Sox as the sleeper team of the AL. They now only have three guys left over from the 2000 division-winning team (Konerko, Thomas, and Garland), and I really like their new look and feel. They still have power in Konerko, Everett, and hopefully a healthy Thomas. They brought in guys who can actually play defense and bring speed to the south side for the first time in awhile, with Rowand, Podsenik, Uribe, Willie Harris off the bench, and Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi (man can that guy field!). Their bullpen ranks one of the best in the AL in Dustin Hermanson, Damaso Marte, Luiz Vizcaino, and closer Shingo Takatsu (finished second in ROY votes last year). The all-around stellar defense should help the great 1-2 punch of Freddy Garcia and southpaw Buehrle anchor the five person deep rotation (yes, they actually have a real 5th starter now that Garland is retaking the role with former Yankees Jose Contreras and Orlando ‘El Duque’ Hernandez in front of him). Add to that established additions such as catcher A.J Pierzynski and right fielder Jermaine Dye, and I think between their small-ball hitting, aggressiveness on the base paths, and run-saving style defense they will play their way into the postseason. Minnesota will still be very solid, and young Clevland will improve with age while Detroit will be more competitive now that they signed Maggs and an established closer in Urbina. Still, Kansas City with suck, and the AL central will be improved but still one of the weaker divisions in baseball, allowing the ChiSox to take it in a close race.
NL Central-
This should be one of the more interesting divisions to watch this year, as they'll still be strong, but I'm guessing not quite as strong as last year. The Pirates will suck, and I think the Cubs are going to end up near the bottom as well. No, I'm not just saying that, they simply didn't improve, and have the same health concerns over their 1-2 punch of Wood and Prior. They lost a good starter, their bullpen sucks as always, and while they're trying to manufacture runs, I don't see anyone powering their lineup and driving in guys from scoring position. Cincy is a very young team with a lot of potential, but I still think they're a year or two away from coming out on top, even with a healthy Griffey (is there such a thing anymore?). I think Houston and St. Louis will be fighting over it, and I'll go out on a limb and say the Cardinals will take first, while Houston picks up the wildcard again. The Astros may be Beltranless, but they still got offense in Berkman, Adam Everett, and Jeff Bagwell can still hit. Their pitchers look great, you can't argue with a healthy Pettitte, Clemens, Oswalt, Redding, Lidge, Monroe, shall I go on? The Cards won't be quite as dominating as last season, but Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols and company will still be able to produce runs and win a lot of games under skipper Tony La Russa's solid leadership. Oh yeah, and Milwaukee, sorry. You have a great deal with Ben Sheets for low pay, but you usually can't get that kind of talent for that price, learn how to spend some money. Even though Carlos Lee was a good pickup, don't expect him to lead your team to greatness, he still needs to work on his own weaknesses (better defense and patience at the plate).
AL West-
Oakland took some big hits in pitching, but they still got Barry Zito and an outstanding bullpen (one of the most underrated factors to a team's success). Texas has a nice mix of hitters in Soriano, Hildago, Gary Matthews Jr., and Michael Young, but their pitching is questionable at best. I still consider Seattle to be rebuilding, but they're getting darn close. Trade away Jamie Moyer midseason, get an ace starter, and the Mariners could surprise people very soon. The lineup is already in place with Ichiro, Scott Spiezio, Richie Sexon, and young guns on their way to greatness like outfielder Jeremy Reed and catcher Miguel Olivo. Look out for the Seattle Mariners in the next couple of years. I guess I have to go with the Angels as my pick for the division, with Cabrera, Figgins, Kennedy, and Erstad creating an infield that is solid on both offense plus defense. The outfield is getting old with Steve Finley, Tim Salmon (probably DH), and even Garret Anderson passing his prime, while I'm not as impressed with Vlady's defense as others seem to be. That could wreak havoc on the pitching staff that follows Bartolo Colon and inflate some ERA's. This division may have the most parity, but not for good reasons.
NL West-
I like the Dodgers here and think they'll have a great season. With Brad Penny returning to join Perez, Lowe, and Weaver, you have four great starters to get aided by the spectacular Eric Gagne when needed. If manager Jim Tracy can keep Milton Bradley in line, and Jose Valentin from causing too many unearned runs while playing third base, there are enough experienced hitters in their prime to score runs. Speaking of experience, the Giants are just getting way too old. If these guys are not taking steroids this year, I think the team will fall below expectations. I wouldn't be surprised to see a fire sale in San Francisco, with so many aging, former superstars (Matheny, Bonds, Snow, Vizquel, Alou, Grissom, maybe even Michael Tucker). The Rockies need some upgrades in pitching, badly, in starters, mid-relievers, and in the setup/specialist role. Preston Wilson needs to come back and play hard, but even with that and Todd Helton having a career year driving in Aaron Miles, it will be too hard to make up for the pitching and should leave them mediocre at best. San Diego is a team that could be a sleeper, and possibly win the division. The Padres pitching is nothing to sneeze at with five legitimate starters, plus relievers Hoffman and Otsuka (another highly underrated veteran of the Japanese leagues) taking the mound in front of above average defense. If a young position player can step up, like shortstop Khalil Greene, I see their high batting averages and quality fielding threatening LA into September.
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